Ofgem will publish the October–December price cap by 26 August. That's the number that decides what winter costs, and it arrives in under three weeks.
The starting position
July's cap rose 13% to £1,862 (like-for-like), driven by wholesale gas costs after the spring's Middle East disruption. Forecasters spent June split on whether October brings relief or another step up — wholesale markets calmed after the ceasefire but haven't returned to early-year levels. Nobody credible is forecasting a dramatic fall.
The wildcard: the Bill Discount Scheme
On 30 July Ofgem opened a consultation on adding a new cost allowance to the cap for the government's Bill Discount Scheme from October. Translation: a support scheme is coming, and the mechanics of how it flows through the cap are being finalised now. Expect the October announcement to carry more moving parts than usual.
Support that's already confirmed
Separately, the Warm Home Discount reopens in October: £150 off electricity bills for around six million households on qualifying means-tested benefits, applied automatically over winter, paid by the end of March 2027. No application needed — but the benefit recipient must be the name on the energy bill, so if you've moved house or switched supplier recently, check that now rather than in January.
And since April, roughly £150 of policy costs have already come off the average bill after the government moved Renewables Obligation costs to the Exchequer and took ECO off bills entirely.
What we'd do before 26 August
Nothing rash. Fixing before a cap announcement is a bet on the direction; if you hate uncertainty, fixes priced below £1,862 exist and remove the question. If you're comfortable with variable pricing, smart tariffs continue to undercut the cap for households that can shift usage — our tariffs guide covers which suits which household.
If you're switching supplier regardless of the cap, switching to Octopus via our referral link adds £50 credit either side of the deal. We'll cover the October number the day it lands.
